Problem prediction is that most often we hear in this country, especially if there is another disaster. As if we could predict just tomorrow. Clearly, the capital city was flooded, like a "giant pond" that makes everyone feel so hard today. Why are we so stupid to see the day tomorrow with gray glasses today?
Unfortunately our nation new to the technique of scenario planning (scenario planning) at the time of crisis. Apparently, the experience is still extremely limited use. Scenarios are used as predictors future uncertain. The way out is taken too limited business diversification if there is a disaster.
Scenario planning is not just a projection or prediction tool. He is a scenario that guide a leader to see things that are not visible today. In the language of Herman Kahn, the inventor of this concept-scenario planning encourages leaders to think about the unthinkable. Instead of seeing tomorrow's leaders with a memory yesterday, but, as Arie de Geus, use the memory of tomorrow.
Yes, what happened today will determine tomorrow. But, how stupid we were to think that human beings are not passive sense who do not respond to difficulties that it faces a million. Human reason thrive if beaten with various problems, as long as he is not a donkey.
You may ask, why Jasa Marga and the police officers did not learn of the difficulties faced by residents of Jakarta toll road through the traffic jams and streets? In fact jammed and chaotic place every day and have for years.
Maybe for this one Megawati true. He led the "bureaucratic waste basket." Toh, Mega also can not just stop there. He must have the courage to separate the rubbish and throw it in the right place for the benefit.
Leaders do not kill imagination
Thinking about things that are unthinkable today is training for executives to come out of various difficulties. Clearly, the stable economic and political time you do not need it. However, what happens when the economy suddenly reversed? So scenario planning is required of all CEOs, all governors, regents and all this time. Now the governor condemned for not prepared for the flood. Tomorrow, what if a high-rise buildings on fire? In Samarinda, governors and regents must think about what happens when their city scorched by fire. Pertamina must answer the question: how can this nation's life after the oil reserves run out someday?
In short, the scenario is an imaginative story about the future. Leader, "Do not kill your imagination!" Make the scenarios logical and structured, and think about what can be done if bad things happen. Do not just think and take action after all happen.
What a funny thing this nation: the new thinking to make the canal after the flood. That seemed really immature. What would happen if the officer let the edges of the canal so dense settlements? Or, could the canal was built for tourism purposes so that Jakarta is beautiful like Amsterdam?
Readers, who imagined the worst scenario does not necessarily occur. But, if it really will happen, we already have ways to deal with it. In other words, he could not be because we did not want it. Let us together face the problems of tomorrow with the memory of tomorrow, not yesterday or memory with a memory today.
Unfortunately our nation new to the technique of scenario planning (scenario planning) at the time of crisis. Apparently, the experience is still extremely limited use. Scenarios are used as predictors future uncertain. The way out is taken too limited business diversification if there is a disaster.
Scenario planning is not just a projection or prediction tool. He is a scenario that guide a leader to see things that are not visible today. In the language of Herman Kahn, the inventor of this concept-scenario planning encourages leaders to think about the unthinkable. Instead of seeing tomorrow's leaders with a memory yesterday, but, as Arie de Geus, use the memory of tomorrow.
Yes, what happened today will determine tomorrow. But, how stupid we were to think that human beings are not passive sense who do not respond to difficulties that it faces a million. Human reason thrive if beaten with various problems, as long as he is not a donkey.
You may ask, why Jasa Marga and the police officers did not learn of the difficulties faced by residents of Jakarta toll road through the traffic jams and streets? In fact jammed and chaotic place every day and have for years.
Maybe for this one Megawati true. He led the "bureaucratic waste basket." Toh, Mega also can not just stop there. He must have the courage to separate the rubbish and throw it in the right place for the benefit.
Leaders do not kill imagination
Thinking about things that are unthinkable today is training for executives to come out of various difficulties. Clearly, the stable economic and political time you do not need it. However, what happens when the economy suddenly reversed? So scenario planning is required of all CEOs, all governors, regents and all this time. Now the governor condemned for not prepared for the flood. Tomorrow, what if a high-rise buildings on fire? In Samarinda, governors and regents must think about what happens when their city scorched by fire. Pertamina must answer the question: how can this nation's life after the oil reserves run out someday?
In short, the scenario is an imaginative story about the future. Leader, "Do not kill your imagination!" Make the scenarios logical and structured, and think about what can be done if bad things happen. Do not just think and take action after all happen.
What a funny thing this nation: the new thinking to make the canal after the flood. That seemed really immature. What would happen if the officer let the edges of the canal so dense settlements? Or, could the canal was built for tourism purposes so that Jakarta is beautiful like Amsterdam?
Readers, who imagined the worst scenario does not necessarily occur. But, if it really will happen, we already have ways to deal with it. In other words, he could not be because we did not want it. Let us together face the problems of tomorrow with the memory of tomorrow, not yesterday or memory with a memory today.
No comments:
Post a Comment